Analysis of accuracy in orbit predictions for space debris using semianalytic theory

Li Bin; Sang Jizhang; Ning Jinsheng

For tens of thousands of Earth orbiting space debris, fast and accurate orbit determination and prediction information is essential for providing reliable collision warnings, and thus becomes an important subject in the space situational awareness(SSA). To overcome the problems of low computing efficiency using numerical integration methods and large orbit prediction errors with analytical theories, semianalytic satellite theory(SST) that could achieve the accuracy of numerical methods with the computing efficiency of analytic methods was developed. The semianalytic orbit integrator being developed using the multi-scale perturbation method at Wuhan University was discussed, together with its prediction performace. Orbits generated from the precise numerical integrator was used as the true orbit to compute the prediction error of the developed semianalytic integrator. Preliminary results show that, for space objects with Area-to-mass ratio 0.01 and orbit altitude 300 km, 2 km prediction accuracy for 1-day orbit prediction is achieved using the semianalytic orbit integrator, and the computation time was only 60 ms.For orbits higher than 1 000 km in altitude, the prediction errors were mostly less than 50 m, meeting the requirements for many space applications.

1. School of Geodesy and Geomatics,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China;

2. Collaborative Innovation Center for Geospatial Technology,Wuhan 430079,China

Received Date: 2015-03-05

Rev Recd Date: 2015-04-10

Publish Date: 2015-11-25

Key words:

Abstract: For tens of thousands of Earth orbiting space debris, fast and accurate orbit determination and prediction information is essential for providing reliable collision warnings, and thus becomes an important subject in the space situational awareness(SSA). To overcome the problems of low computing efficiency using numerical integration methods and large orbit prediction errors with analytical theories, semianalytic satellite theory(SST) that could achieve the accuracy of numerical methods with the computing efficiency of analytic methods was developed. The semianalytic orbit integrator being developed using the multi-scale perturbation method at Wuhan University was discussed, together with its prediction performace. Orbits generated from the precise numerical integrator was used as the true orbit to compute the prediction error of the developed semianalytic integrator. Preliminary results show that, for space objects with Area-to-mass ratio 0.01 and orbit altitude 300 km, 2 km prediction accuracy for 1-day orbit prediction is achieved using the semianalytic orbit integrator, and the computation time was only 60 ms.For orbits higher than 1 000 km in altitude, the prediction errors were mostly less than 50 m, meeting the requirements for many space applications.

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Reference (8)

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Analysis of accuracy in orbit predictions for space debris using semianalytic theory

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